Pharmalittle: Kalshi plans to take bets on clinical trial outcomes

Top of the morning to you, and a fine one it is. Well, sort of. The skies in these parts are decidedly hazy thanks to smoky conditions to the north. Nonetheless, we are doing our best to take a deep breath and focus on the matters at hand. To that end, we are firing up the trusty kettle to make another cuppa stimulation. Our choice today is English breakfast, an old standby. Please feel free to join us. Meanwhile, here are a few items of interest. Hope you have a meaningful and productive day and, of course, do stay in touch. …

Prediction markets have permeated the worlds of sports, politics, and reality television shows. Now, the biopharma industry could be next as Kalshi, one of the world’s largest prediction market exchanges, plans to take bets on clinical trials and regulatory approvals, STAT reports. The company is starting with a small number of markets chosen in collaboration with its partner, AppliedXL, a tech firm that monitors and predicts study outcomes. Initially, Kalshi will take a conservative approach, allowing people to bet only on Phase 3 trial outcomes run by established drug companies and with full approval decisions by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved a first-of-its kind pill from Merck that is designed to help lower cholesterol levels beyond what statins alone can achieve, The Wall Street Journal says. The agency cleared Lipfendra to treat high cholesterol, which is a major risk factor for heart attacks and strokes.  The approval was based on studies showing that Merck’s once-daily pill reduced bad, or LDL, cholesterol levels by up to 60% over six months in adults with or at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Analysts expect the new Merck pill to be a big seller, generating peak annual sales of more than $5 billion.